Oscars' eve, Philippine time. Here are my choices! Note that my "should have been nominated" picks are based on how well the films fared during precursor season. (I make an Excel file every year for fun, but also to put some science into this whole crazy business, and the science actually makes sense!)
Winner: "PARASITE"
Alternate: "LITTLE WOMEN"
On a customized preferential ballot, this is how I would rank the Best Picture nominees:
1. "Parasite"
2. "Little Women"
3. "Marriage Story"
[gap]
4. "1917
5. "The Irishman"
6. "Jojo Rabbit"
7. "Ford v Ferrari"
[gap]
8. "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood"
[gap]
[gap]
[a million more gaps]
9. "Joker"
"Parasite" is far and away the deserving winner, but "Little Women" can win over it and I would be perfectly happy. Among the Best Picture contenders during precursor season, "Knives Out" would be my third placer, ahead of "Marriage Story." "1917" has extremely dumb situations as major plot points. The third act of "The Irishman" is the film I would have wanted to see more of. "Jojo Rabbit" is cute, but never really transcends its cuteness. "Ford" is fun during the racing scenes. "Once..." was an exasperatingly alienating viewing experience. And "Joker" got this year's trash nominee slot, akin to "Bohemian Rhapsody" last year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Winner: BONG JOON-HO, "PARASITE"
Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig, "Little Women"; Céline Sciamma, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
No alternates. The floor is now open for questions, but I will not be taking any. Greta should be in Todd Phillips' slot, and Céline, in Quentin Tarantino's (yes, fight me). That should have solved the "no women" complaint.
BEST ACTOR
Winner: ADAM DRIVER, "MARRIAGE STORY"
Alternate: Antonio Banderas, "Pain and Glory"; maybe Jonathan Pryce, "The Two Popes"
Should Have Been Nominated: Brad Pitt, "Ad Astra"
Joaquin Phoenix has been sweeping the precursors and is going to win for a bad movie. (He was great in "The Master," but there was obviously no beating Daniel Day-Lewis' Abraham Lincoln; he was also great in "Her," a movie I initially adored but now find kind of blech.) Driver clearly deserves to win this year. Banderas would be my alternative vote. Pryce is my far third; I'm not a fan of "The Two Popes" (ordering a cake and getting a muffin). Leonardo DiCaprio, whose Oscar should have been for "The Wolf of Wall Street"--no one was better that year--is nominated this year for a movie I do not care about at all. I would take out either Leo or Joaquin (coin toss; I couldn't care less about the result) and write in Brad Pitt in "Ad Astra." How am I faring so far as "brutally honest Oscars voter"?
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: SAOIRSE RONAN, "LITTLE WOMEN"
Alternate: Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Should Have Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong'o, "Us"; Florence Pugh, "Midsommar"
This should be Lupita's second Oscar. But oh, she's not even nominated. So Renée has also been sweeping the precursors and is going to win for a movie that does not deserve her performance. I am fine with her winning. If we go by the actual lineup, Saoirse would get my vote in a heartbeat. Scarlett and Renée both stay. Charlize Theron and Cynthia Erivo both shouldn't even be here; their nominations should have gone to Lupita and Florence Pugh in "Midsommar." Pugh and Pitt should both be double acting nominees this year. Also, the irony that Lupita, who won an Oscar for playing a slave, isn't this year's token Black woman in the lineup; instead, it's Erivo, who's up for Best Actress for--guess what--also playing a slave. Let it be known: What Lupita does in "Us" is the stuff that legends are made of.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: BRAD PITT, "ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD"
Alternate: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Have Been Nominated: Song Kang-ho, "Parasite"; Choi Woo-shik, "Parasite"; Wesley Snipes, "Dolemite Is My Name"; Timothée Chalamet, "Little Women"
This will be a well-deserved acting win for Brad Pitt. If Joe Pesci pulls off an impossible upset, I will cheer for him. Al Pacino, Tom Hanks and Anthony Hopkins can all go. Pacino is doing classic loud Pacino here. I don't care for Hanks as a stilted Mr. Rogers; I think the film is loads of bull, and Hanks should have been nominated for "Captain Phillips" or even "Sully." Hopkins did what he could with the role. Two actors from "Parasite" are so much more deserving of nominations. Also, Wesley Snipes in "Dolemite"--when camp succeeds, you just know it. If not Snipes, then Chalamet in "Little Women"--nobody has been talking about this performance (maybe it's Chalamet fatigue), which is a shame, because it is terrific in its subtlety.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: LAURA DERN, "MARRIAGE STORY"
Alternate: Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Lopez, "Hustlers"; Cho Yeo-jeong, "Parasite"
I am fine with Laura Dern winning; she is dynamite in this film. Florence Pugh can also win it for that scene alone in the drawing room with Timmy. Kathy Bates can stay in the lineup for her work in "Richard Jewell." ScarJo's "Jojo Rabbit" turn and Margot Robbie in "Bombshell" have to go; in a just world, this should really be Jennifer Lopez's Oscar. Cho Yeo-jeong would be my fifth nominee; her vacuous character is my favorite performance in "Parasite."
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: BONG JOON-HO & HAN JIN-WON, "PARASITE"
Alternate: Rian Johnson, "Knives Out"
Should Have Been Nominated: Lulu Wang, "The Farewell"; Céline Sciamma, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
Noah Baumbach's script for "Marriage Story" is my third placer. Quentin and "1917" out, Wang and Sciamma in--now there's a solid original screenplay lineup.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: GRETA GERWIG, "LITTLE WOMEN"
No alternates. This is clearly Gerwig's Oscar. To take on a classic novel and somehow reinvent it as your own? "Jojo Rabbit" could never.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: ROGER DEAKINS, "1917"
Alternate: Jarin Blaschke, "The Lighthouse"
Should Have Been Nominated: Claire Mathon, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
What is "Joker" doing here again? That should have been Claire Mathon's nomination--and win. But I'm perfectly fine with Roger winning his second; the cinematography, after all, is one of the strongest elements of "1917." I thought "The Lighthouse" was just okay as a whole.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: "PARASITE"
Alternate: "1917"
BEST EDITING
Winner: YANG JIN-MO, "PARASITE"
Alternate: Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker, "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Have Been Nominated: Todd Douglas Miller, "Apollo 11"
I am by no means a fan of "Apollo 11"--I was awed by its technical accomplishment of having woven all those photographs, footages, and recordings into a narrative, but I found the whole just okay. There were certainly more engrossing documentaries this year (see below). But this is the one category that "Apollo 11" deserved a nomination; again, what is "Joker" doing here?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: ALEXANDRE DESPLAT, "LITTLE WOMEN"
Alternate: Hildur Guonadóttir, "Joker"
This is the only "Joker" win I would support (it's gonna happen).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: "FOR SAMA"
I am not a fan of "Honeyland." Thirty minutes into it, I was like, what the fuck am I watching? At the end of last year, I was totally fine with "American Factory" winning this. But an "American Factory" win would only be further proof of Hollywood elitism, of just how insular these awards are. People are dying in Syria, Brenda. Doctors are risking their lives to save lives! But oh, sure, let's vote for the movie about how other cultures are taking jobs away from Americans. I jest a little. "American Factory" is a terrific film. But my heart belongs to "For Sama"; I found "The Cave" too produced, its polish getting in the way of authenticity. "For Sama" would be a worthy winner; it would be a great winner.
P.S. I haven't seen "The Edge of Democracy."
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: "KLAUS"
What a terribly weak field. "Toy Story" was good, but is the weakest of the "Toy Story" films. "I Lost My Body" is a glorified story about a creep. "How to Train Your Dragon 3" is the weakest of the trilogy. And I've yet to see "Missing Link."
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Duh.
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: SAOIRSE RONAN, "LITTLE WOMEN"
Alternate: Renée Zellweger, "Judy"
Should Have Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong'o, "Us"; Florence Pugh, "Midsommar"
This should be Lupita's second Oscar. But oh, she's not even nominated. So Renée has also been sweeping the precursors and is going to win for a movie that does not deserve her performance. I am fine with her winning. If we go by the actual lineup, Saoirse would get my vote in a heartbeat. Scarlett and Renée both stay. Charlize Theron and Cynthia Erivo both shouldn't even be here; their nominations should have gone to Lupita and Florence Pugh in "Midsommar." Pugh and Pitt should both be double acting nominees this year. Also, the irony that Lupita, who won an Oscar for playing a slave, isn't this year's token Black woman in the lineup; instead, it's Erivo, who's up for Best Actress for--guess what--also playing a slave. Let it be known: What Lupita does in "Us" is the stuff that legends are made of.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: BRAD PITT, "ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD"
Alternate: Joe Pesci, "The Irishman"
Should Have Been Nominated: Song Kang-ho, "Parasite"; Choi Woo-shik, "Parasite"; Wesley Snipes, "Dolemite Is My Name"; Timothée Chalamet, "Little Women"
This will be a well-deserved acting win for Brad Pitt. If Joe Pesci pulls off an impossible upset, I will cheer for him. Al Pacino, Tom Hanks and Anthony Hopkins can all go. Pacino is doing classic loud Pacino here. I don't care for Hanks as a stilted Mr. Rogers; I think the film is loads of bull, and Hanks should have been nominated for "Captain Phillips" or even "Sully." Hopkins did what he could with the role. Two actors from "Parasite" are so much more deserving of nominations. Also, Wesley Snipes in "Dolemite"--when camp succeeds, you just know it. If not Snipes, then Chalamet in "Little Women"--nobody has been talking about this performance (maybe it's Chalamet fatigue), which is a shame, because it is terrific in its subtlety.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: LAURA DERN, "MARRIAGE STORY"
Alternate: Florence Pugh, "Little Women"
Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Lopez, "Hustlers"; Cho Yeo-jeong, "Parasite"
I am fine with Laura Dern winning; she is dynamite in this film. Florence Pugh can also win it for that scene alone in the drawing room with Timmy. Kathy Bates can stay in the lineup for her work in "Richard Jewell." ScarJo's "Jojo Rabbit" turn and Margot Robbie in "Bombshell" have to go; in a just world, this should really be Jennifer Lopez's Oscar. Cho Yeo-jeong would be my fifth nominee; her vacuous character is my favorite performance in "Parasite."
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: BONG JOON-HO & HAN JIN-WON, "PARASITE"
Alternate: Rian Johnson, "Knives Out"
Should Have Been Nominated: Lulu Wang, "The Farewell"; Céline Sciamma, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
Noah Baumbach's script for "Marriage Story" is my third placer. Quentin and "1917" out, Wang and Sciamma in--now there's a solid original screenplay lineup.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: GRETA GERWIG, "LITTLE WOMEN"
No alternates. This is clearly Gerwig's Oscar. To take on a classic novel and somehow reinvent it as your own? "Jojo Rabbit" could never.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: ROGER DEAKINS, "1917"
Alternate: Jarin Blaschke, "The Lighthouse"
Should Have Been Nominated: Claire Mathon, "Portrait of a Lady on Fire"
What is "Joker" doing here again? That should have been Claire Mathon's nomination--and win. But I'm perfectly fine with Roger winning his second; the cinematography, after all, is one of the strongest elements of "1917." I thought "The Lighthouse" was just okay as a whole.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: "PARASITE"
Alternate: "1917"
BEST EDITING
Winner: YANG JIN-MO, "PARASITE"
Alternate: Andrew Buckland & Michael McCusker, "Ford v Ferrari"
Should Have Been Nominated: Todd Douglas Miller, "Apollo 11"
I am by no means a fan of "Apollo 11"--I was awed by its technical accomplishment of having woven all those photographs, footages, and recordings into a narrative, but I found the whole just okay. There were certainly more engrossing documentaries this year (see below). But this is the one category that "Apollo 11" deserved a nomination; again, what is "Joker" doing here?
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: ALEXANDRE DESPLAT, "LITTLE WOMEN"
Alternate: Hildur Guonadóttir, "Joker"
This is the only "Joker" win I would support (it's gonna happen).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: "FOR SAMA"
I am not a fan of "Honeyland." Thirty minutes into it, I was like, what the fuck am I watching? At the end of last year, I was totally fine with "American Factory" winning this. But an "American Factory" win would only be further proof of Hollywood elitism, of just how insular these awards are. People are dying in Syria, Brenda. Doctors are risking their lives to save lives! But oh, sure, let's vote for the movie about how other cultures are taking jobs away from Americans. I jest a little. "American Factory" is a terrific film. But my heart belongs to "For Sama"; I found "The Cave" too produced, its polish getting in the way of authenticity. "For Sama" would be a worthy winner; it would be a great winner.
P.S. I haven't seen "The Edge of Democracy."
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Winner: "KLAUS"
What a terribly weak field. "Toy Story" was good, but is the weakest of the "Toy Story" films. "I Lost My Body" is a glorified story about a creep. "How to Train Your Dragon 3" is the weakest of the trilogy. And I've yet to see "Missing Link."
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Duh.
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